Economic Policy prediction markets

Economic policy markets price tariffs, trade deals, sanctions, tax changes and other government economic decisions. Each settles on the official announcement, signed order or published rule its resolution text names. Headlines move these prices before anything is final, so read what counts as resolution before you take a side.

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All Economic Policy markets

Every question below is a live market you can trade with play money.

Fed Decision in October?Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps 55% · there be no change in Fed interest rates 45% · $7.1M Vol.
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?no Fed rate cuts 95% · 1 Fed rate cut 2% · $53M Vol.
Fed Decision in December?Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps 66% · there be no change in Fed interest rates 32% · $878.8K Vol.
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 84% · No 17% · $44.2K Vol.
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–Hike 37% · Hike–Hike–Pause 27% · $53.8K Vol.
Fed rate cut by when?December 3% · October 1% · $535.5K Vol.
Bank of Japan Decision in October?No change in Bank of Japan’s interest… 83% · Bank of Japan increases interest rates… 13% · $99.1K Vol.
US recession by end of 2026?No 92% · Yes 9% · $2M Vol.
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?4.25% 55% · ≥ 4.5% 28% · $5.1M Vol.
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?upper bound reach 4.25% or higher 82% · lower bound reach 2.5% or lower 2% · $1.3M Vol.
Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?No 72% · Yes 28% · $23K Vol.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?No 54% · Yes 46% · $17.6K Vol.
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by when?No 81% · Yes 20% · $160.7K Vol.