Economy prediction markets

Economy markets price macro releases and outcomes: inflation prints, jobs numbers, GDP, recessions and the interest-rate path. Each settles on the official figure from the agency its rules name, such as the BLS or BEA, on its release date. Consensus forecasts are public, so the edge here is in knowing when the market disagrees with them and why.

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New to prediction markets?

A price here is a probability: 62¢ means the market puts the outcome at roughly 62%. The guide to paper trading Economy markets walks through reading one, taking a side and checking the result. If you came from a real book, there is a shorter version on practising with Polymarket’s odds, and a comparison of the free prediction market simulators if you are still choosing one.

Everything below trades with simulated money. When you want a scoreboard, run a game against your own group over the same Economy questions, or browse every market in the catalog.